Possible scenario
Cooperation Slows
20% Chance
Even without a dramatic diplomatic break, South Korea slows practical cooperation with Ukraine. Seoul could delay intelligence sharing, POW coordination, or approvals tied to third-country military support while demanding procedural guarantees.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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