Possible scenario
Interdiction Returns
25% Chance
Iran uses the renewed dip in flows to reassert pressure in the Strait of Hormuz without immediately returning to a full closure. Markets reprice a higher probability that September's disruption could resume.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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