Possible scenario
Gulf Loadings Stabilize
45% Chance
The dip proves to be a short-lived operational setback after the rapid recovery in Gulf exports. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar keep cargo programs largely intact while naval escorts and higher insurance costs remain in place.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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