Possible scenario
Negotiated Suspension
42% Chance
Washington uses the $200,000 voyage fee as leverage rather than an immediate trade weapon. Spain offers procedural assurances on port access and vessel treatment, allowing the FMC and USTR to pause final action while preserving U.S. negotiating leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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