Possible scenario
Fee With Exemptions
30% Chance
The FMC finalizes a version of the fee but narrows its scope after lobbying from U.S. exporters, importers, and port authorities. The result is a real cost increase for Spanish-linked voyages, but not a broad transatlantic trade shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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