Possible scenario
Survives, Rule Hardens
35% Chance
Mojtaba Khamenei survives but is badly injured or unable to appear publicly, leaving Iran's day-to-day command in the hands of senior IRGC officers and loyalist clerics. Tehran presents the hospital bombing as proof of a decapitation campaign and prioritizes regime cohesion over diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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