Possible scenario
Regional War Widens
22% Chance
Whether Khamenei survives or not, Tehran and allied militias choose escalation to demonstrate that the leadership structure remains capable of imposing costs. The immediate market focus shifts from Iranian succession to U.S. basing, Gulf shipping, and oil-flow risks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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