Possible scenario
Death Confirmed
28% Chance
Iranian authorities confirm that Mojtaba Khamenei has died from injuries sustained in the hospital strike. The Assembly of Experts and the IRGC move quickly to prevent a vacuum, but the succession crisis deepens because Mojtaba's own appointment was already contested.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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