Possible scenario
Managed Red Sea Shift
40% Chance
EU capitals provide a limited number of naval assets to EUNAVFOR Aspides while avoiding a direct European confrontation with Iran in the Gulf. This is the most likely path because members can show action on Red Sea shipping without fully owning the Hormuz crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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