Possible scenario
Hormuz Gap Widens
25% Chance
Redirecting European ships to the Red Sea leaves fewer Western assets visibly covering the Strait of Hormuz. Iran tests the gap with inspections, seizures, or threats, keeping oil and insurance markets on edge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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