Possible scenario
Interceptor Scales Quickly
44% Chance
Ukraine turns the Geran-5 shootdown into a credible proof of concept and begins moving jet interceptors to protect Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and key energy sites. This is the most likely path because a cheap interceptor against a fast one-way attack drone directly addresses Ukraine's air-defense cost problem.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- AVAV+1.9%
- RTX+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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