Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
18% Chance
The Gaza anniversary escalation draws in Iran-aligned groups outside Gaza, most plausibly Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in the Red Sea. This would shift the event from a localized Gaza story to a broader regional risk shock, with oil and volatility reacting most clearly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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