Possible scenario
Contained Gaza Exchange
45% Chance
Israel carries out additional limited strikes in Gaza, but the reinstated ceasefire framework largely survives. The Netanyahu government uses the operation to project deterrence before elections without accepting the costs of a renewed full ground campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.