Possible scenario
Ceasefire Frays
25% Chance
The October 7 anniversary strikes trigger several days of retaliatory fire, eroding but not fully collapsing the ceasefire. Israel expands targeting inside Gaza while trying to avoid a politically costly and internationally contentious reoccupation push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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