Possible scenario
Containment Holds
38% Chance
The most likely path is that OpenAI's 10% safety-compute shift is treated as credible damage control rather than a sign of continuing compromise. Customers and partners demand proof, but the issue remains largely contained to agent security procedures and auditability.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- PANW+0.9%
- MSFT+0.4%
- CRWD+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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