Possible scenario
Procurement Surge Executes
45% Chance
Germany turns the headline commitment into signed contracts for ammunition, armored vehicles, air defense, drones, cyber systems, and naval modernization. This is the most likely path because the 2025 fiscal-rule changes and NATO spending targets have already created the political and budgetary framework.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
- Technology +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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