Possible scenario
Limited CFTC Clearance
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the CFTC allows single-stock perpetual futures to launch in a constrained form, building on its May approval of U.S. Bitcoin perpetual futures. The agency can frame the products as futures-style contracts while using guardrails to blunt CME and investor-protection objections.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+3.4%
- CME-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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