Possible scenario
Managed Detente
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia and the UAE use the first summit since the Yemen split to stop further deterioration without fully resolving the dispute. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi likely prioritize containing militia clashes, protecting trade routes, and avoiding damage to broader Gulf economic coordination.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Business Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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