Possible scenario
Moskowitz Holds Seat
47% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Congressional Leadership Fund's withdrawal signals GOP internal polling has moved against the Republican challenger. Jared Moskowitz benefits from incumbency, South Florida name recognition, and the ability to frame the pullback as evidence that national Republicans have deprioritized FL-23.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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