Possible scenario
Dark-Horse Nominee
20% Chance
The Council concludes that all current contenders are too damaged and shifts to a candidate not in the original seven. This outcome is realistic because Secretary-General selections often move toward lower-profile consensus figures after veto-heavy straw polls.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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