Possible scenario
Trump Policy Pivot
20% Chance
The 78% blame figure is large enough to force a tactical response before Election Day. Trump does not abandon the tariff framework, but the White House looks for visible ways to lower consumer and fuel costs without admitting policy failure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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