Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Congress
28% Chance
Republicans survive the inflation backlash by shifting attention to immigration, crime, and local Democratic candidates. A GOP hold keeps Trump's tariff-first agenda intact and increases market concern that inflation expectations remain sticky into 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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