Possible scenario
Managed Transition
25% Chance
Chinese regulators avoid a disorderly collapse in legacy auto supply chains by steering demand through subsidies, scrappage programs, and procurement rules rather than an outright ICE ban. Plug-in hybrids gain the most because they support electrification while easing charging and range concerns.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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