Possible scenario
Foreign Automakers Retrench
20% Chance
The rapid decline in gasoline sales hits foreign joint ventures hardest because their China lineups still depend more on ICE profits and dealer networks. Some foreign brands cut capacity, while others launch lower-cost China-specific EVs to defend share.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- GMM.USD-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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