Possible scenario
War Risk Escalates
20% Chance
The market concludes that refinery damage and retaliation risk matter more than the U.S. sanctions waiver. Ukrainian long-range strikes, Russian export restrictions, or U.S. political backlash raise the probability that diesel flows remain constrained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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