Possible scenario
Tightness Persists
40% Chance
The Russian supply deal fails to convince traders that near-term diesel barrels will arrive quickly enough. Low U.S. distillate inventories, refinery outages, and winter-demand positioning keep futures elevated despite the sanctions easing.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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