Possible scenario
Persistent Gray-Zone Standoff
30% Chance
China responds with a sustained but calibrated maritime presence, using coast guard, militia, or survey vessels rather than naval combatants. Manila continues shadowing operations with larger patrol ships, raising the chance of tactical friction but stopping short of armed conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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