Limited Maritime Escalation

A repeat encounter leads to physical damage or a near-collision, echoing prior incidents from 2023 and 2024. This would likely prompt sharper U.S. statements under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, but both Beijing and Manila would still have strong incentives to avoid a military exchange.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.