Possible scenario
Sustained Air Blockade
25% Chance
The Houthi threat becomes operational through repeated launches at airports and energy sites. Saudi authorities impose temporary restrictions or airlines independently halt service, making the blockade partially effective for several days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.