Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations and Washington press the Houthis and Riyadh to restore a practical cease-fire channel. The Houthis keep the blockade rhetoric but pause airport strikes in exchange for renewed Yemen talks or limited humanitarian concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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