Possible scenario
Contained Airspace Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses and civil aviation authorities contain the immediate risk without a nationwide closure. International carriers reroute selectively around higher-risk corridors, but Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam remain open with delays and higher insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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