Possible scenario
Sanctions Risk Intervenes
20% Chance
The deal becomes entangled in sanctions compliance after the U.S. revoked Chevron's Venezuela oil license in 2025. Even if GeoPark is not a U.S. company, dollar clearing, shipping insurance, counterparties, and diluent sourcing can all create legal friction.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Tickers
- GPRK-6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.