Possible scenario
White House Contains
27% Chance
The administration releases a narrow legal defense and argues there was no direct exchange for the pardon. This scenario is plausible because presidential pardon power is broad, and proving quid pro quo intent is difficult without recordings, emails, or cooperating witnesses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- DJT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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