Possible scenario
Trade Drag Contraction
30% Chance
U.S. auto tariffs and unresolved USMCA negotiations weigh more heavily on Canadian factories, especially transport equipment and metals-linked supply chains. A move below 50 would turn the current slowdown into an outright contraction signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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