Possible scenario
Policy Relief Rebound
20% Chance
The PMI slowdown strengthens Ottawa's case for tariff relief and a smoother USMCA renewal track. If Washington follows through on earlier consideration of lower Canada tariffs, manufacturers could see a near-term confidence rebound despite the weak headline print.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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