Possible scenario
Managed Medical Disclosure
28% Chance
Authorities may choose to acknowledge a limited health issue to stop more damaging rumors. A managed disclosure would preserve the chain of command while increasing near-term concern about regime durability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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