Possible scenario
Elite Contest Opens
20% Chance
If the health rumors reflect real elite anxiety, competing centers of power could begin positioning for a post-Mojtaba transition. The likely contest would involve the IRGC, the Assembly of Experts, Pezeshkian's presidency, and senior judiciary figures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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