Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Freeze
45% Chance
Russia's closure of Germany's St. Petersburg consulate becomes another step in a long-running diplomatic freeze rather than a trigger for immediate retaliation. Berlin protests formally but keeps core embassy channels in Moscow open for citizens, detainees and crisis communications.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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