Possible scenario
Selloff Extends Further
30% Chance
Investors conclude Healey's fiscal-discipline message lacked sufficient policy detail, extending the rise in UK term premia. The move feeds into global duration markets and weighs on rate-sensitive sectors, though it remains short of a systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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