Possible scenario
Credibility Restored
15% Chance
Healey follows the speech with concrete fiscal measures, including tax increases, spending restraint, or an explicit OBR timetable. Investors reduce the UK risk premium, helping global duration sentiment and supporting domestic rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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