Possible scenario
Contained Gilt Repricing
45% Chance
Markets treat the 19-year gilt-yield high as a sharp but contained repricing of UK fiscal risk rather than a repeat of the 2022 mini-budget crisis. Healey and Treasury officials stress adherence to fiscal rules while investors wait for OBR-certified numbers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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