Possible scenario
Security Case Escalates
20% Chance
The expulsion is followed by U.S. claims that members of the delegation or the Iraqi national were tied to IRGC surveillance or an assassination support network. This would connect the New York action to the prior Bolton and Trump plots, raising near-term geopolitical risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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