Possible scenario
Reciprocal Political Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran and Iraq respond politically and legally rather than militarily. The dispute expands into the UN host-country framework and U.S.-Iraq diplomacy, but it remains below the threshold of a regional security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.