Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Freeze
45% Chance
The expulsion becomes a contained diplomatic break rather than a military or sanctions escalation. Tehran denounces Rubio and Trump but avoids steps that would endanger Pezeshkian’s remaining UN access or provoke new U.S. penalties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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