Possible scenario
Sustained Export Constraints
30% Chance
The Khurais strike and East-West Pipeline halt combine with the recent Yanbu and Abqaiq threats to create a more persistent export problem. Riyadh can still export through the Gulf, but the loss of Red Sea flexibility raises supply-risk premiums and complicates the earlier Hormuz export ramp-up.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Industrials -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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