Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Flare
18% Chance
A smaller but still material risk is that Israel's declaration of success in Gaza triggers responses by Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iran-backed militias seeking to reassert pressure. This would move the event from a Gaza-specific war update into a broader Middle East risk episode.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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