Possible scenario
Insurgency Persists
32% Chance
Even if many October 7 participants have been killed, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad can retain small cells, tunnel access, improvised explosive capability, and political influence in parts of Gaza. This scenario assumes the war shifts from large formations to raids, ambushes, and contested governance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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