Prolonged Hormuz Closure

Iran treats the Strait closure as a formal instrument of retaliation against the U.S. oil-export blockade and refuses immediate talks. The most likely near-term path is a grinding standoff in which tanker traffic remains largely halted while Washington and Tehran avoid a direct large-scale war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.