Possible scenario
Negotiated Partial Reopening
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries broker a narrow de-escalation package: limited shipping access through Hormuz in exchange for a pause or modification of the U.S. oil blockade. Tehran can claim it forced concessions, while Washington can claim it protected navigation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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