Possible scenario
Limited Naval Escalation
25% Chance
The United States and partners attempt convoy operations or limited strikes to reopen the waterway, producing direct but contained military exchanges. This path raises the risk premium sharply while still stopping short of a declared U.S.-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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